In practical terms, Iran is a theocratic equivalent of the Third Reich, except it has far greater internal control than Hitler and his minions could ever have dreamed of. Iran is governed by an absolute autocrat, whose rule is enforced strictly and often violently by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Over more than 40 years, the IRCG has established itself as not only an armed social control force, but also as an independent military/paramilitary force of more than 90,000 men with its own independent ground, naval, and air units, as well as the elite Quds Force, which is responsible for “extraterritorial operations,” essentially organizing and supporting all the Iranian guerilla proxy groups across the Middle East. The IRGC also has the ability to call up another 500,000 men. At present, the IRGC Navy is now Iran’s primary force exercising operational control over the Persian Gulf, serving as a de facto coast guard, which suggests that the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to be opened to oil tankers any time soon.
While the “regular” Iranian armed forces (the Artesh) are theoretically independent, and the Artesh is primarily the force assigned for national defense, the regime has continually embedded ideological and political representatives within the Artesh to ensure loyalty to the Supreme Leader.
In addition, because of various sanctions and embargoes, most of Iran’s military hardware is domestically manufactured, and Iran became an exporter of arms by the 2000s, particularly of missiles and drones, many of which have gone to Russia for use against Ukraine. The Iranian drones are far easier and less expensive to manufacture than the vast majority of weapons being used by U.S. forces against Iran.
The U.S. has so far lost three F-15 fighters (if to Kuwaiti air defenses) at a replacement cost of $90 million per jet. A single Patriot (MIM-104) missile, specifically the advanced PAC-3 MSE variant, costs approximately $4 million to $5 million per interceptor. A newly produced Patriot battery, including radar, control station, and 5–8 launchers, costs over $1 billion. Even “cheaper” U.S. missiles can cost $1-3 million each.
By comparison, Iranian Shahed drones, which are so slow that high tech systems have trouble detecting them, each cost from $20,000 to $50,000 or less. In addition, Russia is now building more sophisticated Shahed drones and has ramped up production enough that it conceivably could export them for Iranian oil.
So… what happens when the U.S. runs through all its expensive and lethal weapons?
A short war? Really?
